china & new zealand work to make currencies directly convertible

via wallstreetjournal wsj.com

WELLINGTON, New Zealand—Seeking to help its exporters, New Zealand is negotiating with China to make their currencies directly convertible, a spokeswoman for Prime Minister John Key said.

Wellington's push is aimed at driving down costs for companies that do business with China, which is close to overtaking Australia as New Zealand's No. 1 trading partner.

Talks are in the "very early stages" and "progressing," the spokeswoman said, adding that the issue had been brought up during Mr. Key's visit to China last month.

Officials at the People's Bank of China didn't return calls seeking comment.

Direct convertibility between the Chinese yuan and New Zealand dollar would end the need for New Zealand's companies and currency traders to convert New Zealand dollars or yuan into U.S. dollars when making or receiving payments.

New Zealand's two-way trade with China totaled 15.3 billion New Zealand dollars (US$12.4 billion) in the year ended April 30, compared with NZ$16.8 billion with Australia, government data showed last week. Most of New Zealand's exports to China are agricultural products—particularly milk powder, meat and wool—while most of its imports from there are computers, mobile phones and clothes.

Earlier

• China, Australia Reach Currency Deal

Trade relations took a knock earlier this month when China temporarily blocked millions of dollars of New Zealand meat from entering the country, as it bolstered scrutiny of imports after a spate of mainly homegrown food-safety scandals.

Beijing is undertaking a long, gradual campaign to establish the yuan as a more market-oriented, international currency. China's State Council, or cabinet, said in a statement this month that the country would draft a plan to allow the yuan to become fully convertible. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China is guiding the currency higher and set the median point of its permitted daily trading band last week at the strongest level ever.

China and Australia reached a deal to allow direct convertibility between the yuan and Australian dollar last month; before that, only the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen were directly exchangeable with the yuan. As China has become more industrialized, it has become Australia's biggest trading partner and buyer of its commodities, including raw materials such as copper and iron ore.

For New Zealand, "There is no time frame for concluding an agreement," Mr. Key's spokeswoman said. "We are aware it took Australia around 12 months to achieve its recent agreement with China."

China topped Australia as New Zealand's biggest trading partner from February through April this year, recent monthly government data showed. Trade between the countries has been growing ever since they reached a bilateral free-trade agreement five years ago. That increased trade helped New Zealand, like Australia, weather the economic turmoil in Europe and the fragility of the U.S. recovery, which have weighed on global growth.

As well as lowering business costs, direct convertibility may pave the way for New Zealand's central bank to diversify some of its foreign-exchange assets into Chinese government bonds. Last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia said it planned to invest up to 5% of its foreign-currency assets—close to two billion Australian dollars (US$1.9 billion)—in Chinese government bonds.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand declined to comment.

Write to Rebecca Howard at rebecca.howard@wsj.com and James Glynn atjames.glynn@wsj.com

Austerity and Higher Interest Rates

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — The “Dr. Boom” scenario: America is about to “unleash a spending spree. Years of self-denial give way to pent-up demand,” predicts UBS economist Maury Harris in USA Today’s bold lead story.

His clue? Consumer sentiment: “Harris estimates that in the next five years, catch-up consumption will boost annual consumer spending growth by a half point to above 3% from about 2%.”

Reassuring? No, wishful thinking. Be very skeptical. As Robert Kuttner, author of the new “Debtors’ Prison: The Politics of Austerity Versus Prosperity” once wrote in BusinessWeek,
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“What do you call an economist with a prediction? Wrong.”

Harris is bucking the headwinds of history. As Jeremy Grantham, chief strategist of the $100 billion GMO money managers, recently told InvestmentNews, the newspaper of record for America’s 90,000 professional investment advisers, “3% annual GDP growth is history.”

Here’s why you better be preparing today for a crash dead ahead. As Pimco’s Bill Gross warned in his recent newsletter: “You’re going to lose money investing ... because the central banks say so.” That’s right, this is a Fed-driven rally. Soon the Fed will be forced to stop printing cheap money.

No spending spree; Obama’s new Fed Chair has to raise rates

Here’s the alternative “Dr. Doom’s August scenario:” Aging bull market. Fifth year. Markets at risk. Down soon. August. Will Obama reappoint Bernanke again? No way. But who? New blood? Shake things up with Wall Street mastermind Mayor Michael Bloomberg? After more than two decades of Greenspan/Bernanke’s misguided, destructive monetary policies, America could use a guy like him at this crucial turning point.

But expect a safe bet. Obama favors a woman.                  The high rollers are already betting on Janet Yellen, vice chairman of the Fed, long-time monetary insider. Former San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank CEO. Also chairman of Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers.

But watch out, even a sure bet can misjudge hidden dangers lurking ahead of a Titanic like the $15 trillion U.S. economy. As the Wall Street Journal’s Matt Wirz wrote in March:

The Fed “won’t be able to keep a lid on interest rates forever.” So “large money managers such as BlackRock, TCW Group and Pimco are getting ready for the day when rates take their first turn higher. It isn’t coming anytime soon, these investors say. But when it does, they worry, the ascent will be swift and steep.”

Get defensive now, start preparing for a crash ... later is too late

Get it? Rates will go up. Way up. Very fast. And America’s 95 million Main Street investors will be unprepared. Markets will crash. Like 1994’s 24% bond crash after Fed rate increases, notes Wirz.

The big players say the crash “won’t happen soon.” Don’t believe them. They’re betting with trillions. And they are hedging their bets, already preparing for “when rates take their first turn higher,” because rates will soar “swift and steep,” and when that happens it will be too late to prepare.

“Dr. Doom,” the economist Nouriel Roubini is also hedging his bet, misleading investors, telling us to expect a “huge rally in risky assets” the next couple years “setting markets up for a major sell-off.”

Warning, a crash is more likely to happen in August 2013 than in 2015 when the next presidential election campaign is kicking into high gear. So start preparing for a crash when the new Fed chairman ends cheap money.

article continued here....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-out-by-august-qe-ends-rates-up-crash-2013-05-22?pagenumber=2