Monday, November 19, 2012

Shadow Banking System


The system of so-called "shadow banking," blamed by some for aggravating the global financial crisis, grew to a new high of $67 trillion globally last year, a top regulatory group said, calling for tighter control of the sector.


A report by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) on Sunday appeared to confirm fears among policymakers that shadow banking is set to thrive, beyond the reach of a regulatory net tightening around traditional banks and banking activities.
The FSB, a task force from the world's top 20 economies, also called for greater regulatory control of shadow banking.

"The FSB is of the view that the authorities' approach to shadow banking has to be a targeted one," the group wrote in a report, noting the current lax regulation of the sector.
"The objective is to ensure that shadow banking is subject to appropriate oversight and regulation to address bank-like risks to financial stability," it said.

Officials at the European Commission in Brussels also see closer oversight of the sector as important in preventing a repeat of the financial crisis that has toppled banks over the past five years and rocked the euro zone.

The study by the FSB said shadow banking around the world more than doubled to $62 trillion in the five years to 2007 before the crisis struck.

But the size of the total system had grown to $67 trillion in 2011 — more than the total economic output of all the countries in the study.

The multi-trillion dollar activities of hedge funds and private equity companies are often cited as examples of shadow banking.

But the term also covers investment funds, money market funds and even cash-rich firms that lend government bonds to banks, which in turn use them as security when taking credit from the European Central Bank.

Even the man credited with coining the term, former investment executive Paul McCulley, gave a catch-all definition, saying he understood shadow banking to mean "the whole alphabet soup of levered up non-bank investment conduits, vehicles and structures," such as the special investment vehicles that many blamed for the financial crisis.
The United States had the largest shadow banking system, said the FSB, with assets of $23 trillion in 2011, followed by the euro area — with $22 trillion — and the United Kingdom — at $9 trillion.

The U.S. share of the global shadow banking system has declined in recent years, the FSB said, while the shares of the United Kingdom and the euro area have increased.
The FSB warned that tighter rules that force banks to hoard more capital reserves to cover losses could bolster shadow banking.

It advocated better controls, although cautions that shadow banking reforms should be dealt with carefully because the sector can also be a source of credit for business and consumers.

Forms of shadow banking can include securitization, which can transform bank loans into a tradeable instrument that can then be used to refinance credit, making it easier to lend.
In the run-up to the crisis, however, banks such as Germany's IKB stored billions of euros of such instruments in off-balance sheet vehicles, which later unraveled.

Another example is a repurchasing agreement, or repo, where a player such as a hedge fund could sell government bonds it owns to a bank, agreeing to repurchase them later.
The bank may then lend those bonds onto another hedge fund, taking a position on the government debt. Such agreements are used by banks to lend and borrow. A risk could arise if one of the parties in the chain collapses.

The European Commission is expected to propose EU-wide rules for shadow banking next year.
Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Marc Faber: Prepare For Stocks Meltdown


via CNBC.com 

Marc Faber: Prepare for a Massive Market Meltdown

Published: Tuesday, 13 Nov 2012 | 7:54 AM ET
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By: Holly Ellyatt
Assistant News Editor
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The markets are going to go into meltdown soon, so expect stocks to lose 20 percent of their value, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report told CNBC on Tuesday.


Bloomberg | Getty Images
Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report

“I don’t think markets are going down because of Greece, I don’t think markets are going down because of the ‘fiscal cliff’ — because there won’t be a ‘fiscal cliff,’ ” Faber told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “The market is going down because corporate profits will begin to disappoint, the global economy will hardly grow next year or even contract, and that is the reason why stocks, from the highs of September of 1,470 on the S&P, will drop at least 20 percent, in my view.”
Faber, who is known for his bearish views, cited tech giant Apple [AAPL 546.159    3.329  (+0.61%)   ], a company whose disappointing earnings havecaused its stock to fall 20 percent from its September highs and 14 percent in the past month.
A series of poor quarterly earnings from corporate giants such asAmazon.com [AMZN  226.57    0.10  (+0.04%)   ], McDonald's [MCD  84.86   -0.02  (-0.02%)   ] and Google [GOOG  663.32    -2.58  (-0.39%)   ] have hurt investor sentiment in recent weeks.
Faber argued that the “fiscal cliff,” a rise in taxes and automatic spending cuts, would actually involve some minor tax increases in “five years’ time” and some spending cuts “in 100 years.”

What the U.S. needed was some pain, he said, aptly demonstrated by the euro zone’s austerity measures that are attempting, with a mixed measure of success, to curb gaping budget deficits.
“There will be pain and there will be very substantial pain. The question is do we take less pain now through austerity or risk a complete collapse of society in five to 10 years’ time?” he said, adding that there was a lack of political will to tackle the U.S. budget.
Faber added: “In a democracy, they’re not going to take the pain, they’re going to kick down the problems and they’re going to get bigger and bigger.”
Payback Time
Faber identified several issues curbing an economic recovery, such as the real estate market, which he said had never been so “overbuilt.” He also said there was lots more deleveraging ahead.

“In the Western world, including Japan, the problem we have is one of too much debt and that debt now will have to be somewhere, somehow repaid or it will slow down economic growth,” Faber said. “I think we lived beyond our means from 1980 to 2007, and now it’s payback period.”
Faber told CNBC that central bank stimulus was useless and the implosion of markets was the only way to restructure the financial system.
“I think the whole global financial system will have to be reset and it won’t be reset by central bankers but by imploding markets — either the currency [markets, debt market or stock markets,” he said. “It will happen — it will happen one day and then we’ll be lucky if we still have 50 percent of the asset values that we have today.”
—By CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt

General Scandel Better Than General Hospital



Gen. Patraeus and Mrs Broadwell





The Players:

Mrs Kelley far right

USMC Gen. Allen
Interesting Facts, Possible Reasons for Timing and Ultimately what it all means.

1.  FBI interviews of Mrs Broadwell and Gen.  Patraeus both admitted adultery and cooperated, freely gave access to computers.

2.  Broadwell computer had both "Non-classified" and "classified" files, Gen. Patraeus stated he gave her no classified files.

3.  Why was she emailing Mrs Kelley silly "catty" emails, when there was nothing to gain, since Mrs Kelley was friends with Mrs Patraeus?

4.  Mrs Broadwell has some connections to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, and know International Arms Dealer, Jans Henrik Jebsen, and one of his company's Gamma Applied Visions Group..

5.  Gen. Patraeus was known to be somewhat "anti-Israel" and Eric Cantor is friends of "likud" party.

6.  Timing? almost as soon as the election was called, this story is released, IE When Republicans realized they had lost whitehouse.

7.  Mrs kelley was intentionally ensnared by Mrs Broadwell because she knew of her affair with Gen. John Allen, the top U.S. general in Afghanistan aligned with Gen. Patraeus and the Obama Line.

8.  Broadwell has MS Degree with Focus on Iran and Syria ???

9.  The FBI Agent Friend of Mrs Kelley, also sent Mrs Kelley hundreds of emails of his "Chest" bare naked chest with sexual overturns towards her.

Tying all this together, Obama allowed our Ambassador and staff to be sacrificed for destruction of the "Obama" torture prison at the compound and destruction of all evidence therein.  That is why no agency was allowed to respond to the SOS via Benghazi staff.

Hillary Clinton and Pres. Obama very well might have covertly arranged for the Libyans to attack the compound, knowing that the Gen. Patraeus, and Gen. Allen Scandel was bound to reveal the CIA Torture Prison, and that Sex Stores were going to break either before or after the election.

Thus, Pres. Obama and Sec of State Clinton have their own Abu Ghraib,  Watergate, and Clinton Sex scandal all rolled into One Big Cover up.

 Republicans lost election, Obama and Clinton knew of Benghazi, CIA Torture Prison, If Mrs Broadwell is Israel plant, she hacked Patraeus email and computer.   Israel wants war with Syria/Iran as do international arms dealers.  Eric Cantor wants Obama to go down via its not the action, its the "Cover Up", Obama knew Benghazi was attacked to retrieve Libyan Al Queada suspects held in the CIA prison.  Gen.'s Patraeus, and Allen were Anti War and against action by Israel and USA against Iran... Israel and Republicans want Obama Admin frozen in Scandal.  Obama goes down for the "Lies" to congress and American People about allowing the death of the Benghazi staff.

This story is going to be better than General Hospital, no Pun Intended.

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Eco-Tax, US Treasury studies Green Tax Code


U.S. Treasury Sets "Green Tax Code"


Coming soon:  a green tax code for American businesses and individual taxpayers alike?





Sensenbrenner, a Republican, is a former member of the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, created by the Democratic congressional majority during the Bush Administration.
It is there, he says, that the National Academies study was first ordered up, by Congressman Earl Blumenauer of Oregon, in 2008—but never funded, until the advent of the Obama Administration.   


 A major tax study currently being sponsored by the U.S. Treasury will give environmental activists a powerful new weapon in their campaign to alter the entire American economic and social landscape  in the name of halting “climate change”—including the possible levying of new carbon taxes.

 That campaign is bound to intensify in the aftermath of Nov. 6’s presidential election, regardless of who wins the race, as the nation faces the challenge of deficit reduction and tax reform that will be required to overhaul the country’s over-strained finances. Environmental advocates and others are likely to raise such innovative mechanisms as carbon taxes and major shifts in tax rates and incentives as part of the process—and the impending study may well provide them with important ammunition.

Under the bland title of Effects of Provisions in the Internal Revenue Code on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, the $1.5 million study is being carried out under the auspices of the National Academies of Science (NAS). Originally planned to take two years, the ambitious project aims to take an inventory of the U.S. tax code in terms of  the effects of its most important provisions on the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions—a huge and complicated exercise in environmental and economic modelling.


The study itself will not be available until after the election. Originally slated for completion in September of this year, its publication has since been postponed until the first quarter of next year.

According to a NAS  spokesperson, one reason is that it must go through a rigorous, anonymous review process. But  according to a NAS staffer who spoke with Fox News, another significant reason is the Academies’ demand for a “consensus” among the committee members charged with its production before the review process begins. According to the staffer the study is “still in the process of late stage revision by the committee,” and will go for review “in the near future.”
The results will likely bring  an entirely new dimension to any future bargaining table in Washington that aims at achieving financial reform.  Such bargaining is considered nearly inevitable as the U.S. tries to back away from the fiscal cliff created by towering annual deficits and still accelerating obligations under Social Security and still-to-be implemented Obamacare.
What the NAS  study will examine are the basic building blocks of the tax system, but not from a job creation or growth perspective. Instead, the question is what levels of greenhouse gas are currently produced  by its provisions.  
These include not only deductions and allowances for production of varying types of energy, but also such things as the home mortgage deduction and the investment tax credit to spur business activity, not to mention tax provisions that affect patterns of urban development, agriculture, forestry and all manner of industrial processes.

In short, just about everything.

The terms of reference of the study say it “will not recommend particular new taxes or tax incentives nor changes in existing provisions of the tax code.”  On the other hand, the study “may evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of different tax measures in reducing GHG emissions relative to other policy instruments.”


 In other words, the study may provide the means to “comparison shop” tax levels and tax incentives for a wide variety of economic and social activities on the basis of their alleged impact on global warming.

One element of such an approach has been frequently hinted at by the Obama Administration during the election campaign, as it has argued against unspecified subsidies for the oil, gas and coal industries and greater emphasis on “renewable” energy sources such as solar and wind which have so far proved to be much more expensive.

 The National Academies’ study is being overseen by an ad hoc committee of experts, whose membership is approved by the National Academies’ president, Ralph J. Ciccerone—himself an expert on atmospheric chemistry. The membership list is a lengthy roster of climate change and legal experts as well as economists versed in the arcana of computerized economic modeling.


The committee is chaired by William Nordhaus, a distinguished professor of economics at Yale University and former member of the President’s Council of Economics under Jimmy Carter. Nordhaus has been involved in previous National Academies efforts to, as the study website puts it, “integrate environmental and other non-market activity into the national economic accounts.”

Approached by Fox News to discuss the study, Nordhaus declined until after its publication.

Until the study itself is published, it is also not possible to examine the research efforts that have gone into it, which largely consist, apparently, of four consultants’ reports commissioned by the National Academies’ committee selected to oversee the study.

One of those reports was delivered by a consulting firm headed by Dale Jorgenson, a renowned professor economics at Harvard University, and former chairman of the specific board of the National Academies of Science that was charged with producing the new tax code study.

Contacted by Fox News, Jorgenson also declined to speak about the project until a final report is published.
Among the many research items on Jorgenson’s Harvard University website, however, is testimony last June before the Senate Committee on Finance entitled “Tax Reform: the Impact on U.S. Energy Policy,” in which the economist outlines a new system of energy taxes on coal, oil and natural gas that could “clean up the environment and slow global warming” The new tax revenue could also “close the budget gap and reduce tax rates as part of comprehensive tax reform.”


According to Ken Green, an environmental expert at the American Enterprise Institute, the entire NAS study “look like another effort aimed at paving the way for weaving carbon taxes into tax reform.”  

Green says that option is favored not only by political liberals, but also by some conservatives who want  a “revenue-neutral” version of carbon taxes to, among other things, “green up the conservative brand.”

Green argues that such taxes are not only ineffective, but dampen economic growth and are actually regressive, hitting lower-income Americans higher than harder-income earners.

To Congressman James Sensenbrenner of  Wisconsin, the National Academies’ study, whenever it appears, is “a waste of money,” whose results, whenever they appear, should be opposed. “They are simply trying to bypass the people’s representatives and use technocrats to achieve their agenda,” he argues.

Rep. Blumenauer, a Democrat,  Earl Blumenauer is a strong advocate of “sustainable communities” and environmental causes. His office confirmed that he had originally proposed the National Academies study, but did not reply to additional requests for interviews or information.

Whatever the study’s origins, its research will be what counts—and in the tug-of-war between “climate change” concerns and economic growth, however that research is eventually  used will still depend greatly on the results on Nov. 6.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/11/01/eco-taxes-study-financed-by-us-treasury-will-link-tax-code-to-carbon-emissions/?test=latestnews#ixzz2B0gv2nxI

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Currency Wars

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

China Threatens Japan with Treasury War


 via The Telegraph   Written by    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard






Chinese Navy Ships On Maneuvers



Sept. 18, 2012
Jin Baisong from the Chinese Academy of International Trade – a branch of the commerce ministry – said China should use its power as Japan’s biggest creditor with $230bn (£141bn) of bonds to “impose sanctions on Japan in the most effective manner” and bring Tokyo’s festering fiscal crisis to a head.
Writing in the Communist Party newspaper China Daily, Mr Jin called on China to invoke the “security exception” rule under the World Trade Organisation to punish Japan, rejecting arguments that a trade war between the two Pacific giants would be mutually destructive.
Separately, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that China is drawing up plans to cut off Japan’s supplies of rare earth metals needed for hi-tech industry.

The warnings came as anti-Japanese protests spread to 85 cities across China, forcing Japanese companies to shutter factories and suspend operations.
Fitch Ratings threatened to downgrade a clutch of Japanese exporters if the clash drags on. It warned that Nissan is heavily at risk with 26pc of its global car sales in China, followed by Honda with 20pc. Sharp and Panasonic both have major exposure. Japan’s exports to China were $74bn in the first half of this year. Bilateral trade reached $345bn last year.
Mr Jin said China can afford to sacrifice its “low-value-added” exports to Japan at a small cost. By contrast, Japan relies on Chinese demand to keep its economy afloat and stave off “irreversible” decline.
“It’s clear that China can deal a heavy blow to the Japanese economy without hurting itself too much,” he said. It is unclear whether he was speaking with the full backing of the Politburo or whether sales of Japanese debt would do much damage. The Bank of Japan could counter the move with bond purchases. Any weakening of the yen would be welcome.
A recent study by the US Defence Department concluded that a Chinese firesale of US debt was not a serious threat.
The US defence secretary, Leon Panetta, was in Beijing on Tuesday to try to stem the political crisis, calling for restraint on both sides.
He warned earlier that “provocations” over the islands could spiral out of control and lead to conflict.
Mr Panetta said the US is neutral but this is a hard balancing act, given the US nuclear umbrella for Japan and its use of military bases on Japanese soil as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier”. The ambiguity of the US role was glaring after a deal with Tokyo on Monday to build a new anti-missile radar shield – ostensibly against North Korea.
Diplomats say China is calibrating the crisis to probe the strength of US ties with Japan, knowing that alliance fatigue in Washington and the clumsy handling of the dispute by Tokyo has created a rare opportunity.
The Obama administration must navigate a delicate course. A tough line against China risks putting the world’s two superpowers on a collision course: a soft line risks setting off alarm bells in Japan and pushing the country towards rearmament.
Christian Le Miere from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said the crisis had become dangerous, citing Mao Zedong’s aphorism from 1930 that “a single spark can start a prairie fire”.
He said the region is “rife with historical enmity and chauvinism”, encouraged by Tokyo’s “seeming lack of contrition for wartime atrocities” and China’s own well-nurtured narrative of humiliation by foreigners.
China’s post-Maoist regime derives its legitimacy from nationalism, especially now that the boom is fading and China is losing some of its competitive edge.
The anti-Japanese fervour was systematically stoked by the “Patriotic Education Campaign” of Jiang Zemin in the 1990s to divert attention from party corruption and the growing gap between rich and poor.
But it is a double-edged sword for China’s leaders. “Given its potency, it is difficult to control. Nationalism can turn against the government, if it is perceived as doing too little,” he said.
Markets are already starting to price in an arms race in Asia. Shares of China’s North Navigation Control Technology, which makes missile systems, have jumped 30pc in recent days.
China is becoming self-sufficient in defence. It was the world’s biggest net importer of weapons six years ago. It fell to fourth place last year.
Japan is at the other extreme. An official report this year – “A Strategy for Survival” – said Japan’s spending on its “Self-Defence Force” had shrunk by 4pc in 10 years. It called for “urgent” action to rebuild the country’s military.
If there is any silver lining in an Asian arms race, it may at least soak up the region’s excess savings and pull the world out of semi-slump. But be careful what you wish for.



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